THE PLAN: Kembla today on a Soft 6 – Rail +3m – should negate any fence bias and hoping for a fair to down the outside pattern ideally.
R1 – Ugly race – two favourites look well enough placed – but neither bulletproof. Staying away from this one.
R2 – Absolutely impossible for mine – cannot find an edge of any sort.
R3 #3 Peribsen – Extremely interesting runner here from the O’Shea yard – certainly did enough first up behind Sedanzer to be EXTREMELY hard to beat in a C1 set weights race – French form is over further – but against far better than this and he looks to have acclimatised well. Price obviously nothing to write home about – but looks justified in this case. Ready to go at all – price approximately $1.40 in my opinion. So worth the risk it being under done. Betting should be a very solid guide late.
SUGGESTED BETTING: Use in Multi’s
R4 – Cradle Mountain winner of last two – has had things in his favour on both occasions – but has been impressive. Has the speed to be controlling this race again – but this is clearly his toughest test. Short enough to be wary of and not keen to bet around him. $7 Malaigo possibly the value – should trail the favourite. Staying out.
R5 – Scratchings have taken a bit of the life out of this race. Really like the way Aberration knuckled down late first up – 1400m looks much better for him – stable flying and clearly the horse to beat. Another that looks around his right price though and just a little query over 2nd up is enough for me to stay out of this one also.
R6 #6 Godunov – Promising horse from the Gerald Ryan yard that was a soft winner on debut – mile looks perfect 2nd up and he should be strong late again. Prometheus is the huge threat – dominant first up in good time and he has looked a possible black type horse at times. Inside gate and rider are both queries against and will stop me saving on this runner in multi’s.
SUGGESTED BETTING: Use in Multi’s + 2 Units Place @ $2.05 with Sportsbet / If Peribsen is beaten – 2 Units Godunov @ $6.50 with Bet365 (Happy to take $6.00 plus)
R7 #9 Classic Thoughts – This horse just looks the clear value runner of the race – good merit in the run last time behind Sasuba – gets the senior rider and ready to peak third run back. Will give a start and pace doesn’t look on – but hopefully the track is suiting swoopers and the field size alone should generate a decent tempo.
SUGGESTED BETTING: Use in Multi + 2 units Place @ $2.88 with Bet365 / If Peribsen is beaten – 1.5 Units Classic Thoughts @ $9 with Bet365 (Happy to take $8)
Peribsen / Godunov – 1.5U
Peribsen / Classic Thoughts – 1U
Peribsen / Godunov (Place) / Classic Thoughts (Place) – 2.5U