THE PLAN: Rail +3m and a very hot day expected. On pace and inside should be a solid advantage as usual with this setup. Looks a solid enough card.
R1 #3 Velocita – Just have to be with this runner here – overcame a hopeless position with no momentum at Wyong and ran away from them late. This is a step up in grade – but looks suited out in trip and should get last crack at them.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Velocita @ $3.50 with Sportsbet – Happy to take $3.20+
R3 #6 Soviet – #7 Wooshka – #9 Ordos Honour – Have chosen a bit of a safer option incorporating Ordos Honour as well here. Soviet should control from on speed – blinkers back on and clearly the horse to run down. Wooshka did a good job trapped on the inside at Hawksbury last start – comfortably beat the rest there. Ordos Honour has always looked to have ability – trialled well and drawn for soft trail.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Soviet @ $4 with Bet365/UNIBET/UBET/Crownbet/
R4 #4 Fantastic Man – #6 Happy Go Plucky – Fantastic Man should control from the front here and give a very strong sight – Happy Go Plucky should be right on his back and ready to pounce now when the gap appears – perfectly setup and finds the perfect race to break through in town. There are others with arguably more ability here – but limited riders and poor preparations hopefully handicap them sufficiently for Fan Man and Happy Go to dominate this one.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2 Units Fantastic Man @ Top Fluctuation or $3.90 with Bet365 – 4 Units Happy Go Plucky @ $3.90 with Bet365 or Top Fluctuation.
R5 – Hittite was my biggest bet of the day when $7.50 overnight – unfortunately, the price went off prior to 9am and continued to firm from that point. Was having a strong play on Hittite – saving on Jaunty with possible small play on Lope De Lope. Price gone – so staying out now.
R7 #2 The Gavel – #8 Smooth Whiskey – Keen to bet around Emperor’s Way here – who found a very suitable race last time and out sprinted them – very different race here and just question its fortitude. Smooth Whiskey has been flying all prep and again is ideally set up – rider change the only query against really. The Gavel is a tough one pacer coming back in grade and rising in distance – again the rider is a query – but should be solid late when a few of these could be slowing down.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2.5 Units The Gavel @ $7.50 with Bet365 – Happy to take $7.50 / 3.5 Units Smooth Whiskey @ $4.60 with Bet365 – Happy to take $4+
R2 #9 Talico – Only a conservative play here. Horse has had no luck at all at both runs back. Draws to need luck again – but is hard fit now and we get odds to compensate for the draw.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2 Units Talico @ $11 with Bet365 – Happy to take $9+