THE PLAN: Gosford Rail +3M and what should be a fast enough surface. Looking for leaders on the fence here – behind leader OK. Dont want to be coming from back or wide as a rule.
R2 #4 Falcon Island – Backed this horse on debut when nothing went his way from go to whoa. Three weeks to build fitness and the blinkers go on today. Usually against horses jumping so sharply in distance – but from this stable around this circuit – should lead and give a huge sight. Obvious danger Cormac looked to be wanting 2000m + on debut – so hoping it is out the back and lacks the turn of foot to fun Falcon down.
SUGGESTED BETTING: Use in Multi – $2.40 with Bet365
R3 – Interesting race. Star of Monsoon resumes a gelding – probably midfield and would be looking to bet around it. Unwise looks clearly the horse to beat from the wider draw – if it leads/outside lead – should be winning. See Me Rock and Dark Haze drawn to get the right runs to get into the placings.
R4 – Just a tonne of speed here. So Hard To Catch has been trialling like a first up winner – just doubting that 1000m first up in a speed duel looks suitable. Bee Neata was very lucky to win on debut – different kettle of fish here – looks very short odds. Trust Me is certainly the one that looks the run on type – just thought he might be in an awkward spot. Nothing lines up here and looks a lottery.
R5 – Absolutely no idea. Penny Fling possibly the value.
R6 #4 Positive Problems – Sedanzer comes up favourite here and ticks a lot of boxes – runs a strong mile (plenty dont here) – just a huge query over where she will be in the run – if she gets luck in running will be a nightmare to beat late. Positive Problems looks the certain leader – those around her really look to be 50/50 at running the trip – if Declan puts the pressure on from the 600m – can give a huge sight.
SUGGESTED BETTING: Use in Multi with Falcon Island – If Falcon Island loses – 2 Units Positive Problems @ $9.50 with Bet365/Sportsbet/TAB.
R7 #2 Allegheny – #9 Seething Jackal – Alleghany won well fresh – 42 days between runs is a slight query here – but looks the likely leader again and is a much more genuine horse from that spot. Seething Jackal is fitter for the first up run – can hold leaders back and gets the tongue tie – looks the value.
SUGGESTED BETTING: Use in Multi. If Falcon Island gets beaten – 4 Units Alleghany @ $4.20 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4.20+) / 2 Units Seething Jackal @ $9.50 with TAB or $9 with Bet365 – Happy to take $8+
Falcon Island / Positive Problems – 1U @ $22+ approx
Falcon Island / Alleghany – 2U @ $10 approx
Falcon Island / Seeking Jackal – 1U @ $22+ approx