THE PLAN: Flemington gets the rail moved out to the 3m point and does look to be racing quite well. Better to be on the inside portion for races not down the straight – has been hard to come wide and win. But keeping a close eye on this.
Hawkesbury looks a very poor meeting and waiting to get an edge from any track pattern before entertaining betting there today.
Hawkesbury Updates to follow if required.
R2 – Interested in Von Tunzelman here – comes across from the NZ for the first time. Roger James a master at targeting the right races and this bloke looks suited to Flemington – soft draw and in form rider all point to this bloke being solid value here around the $9 mark.
R3 – Greys Race – All set to make Silvera a suggested bet here and just got stuck on the drop back to 1400m. The form around his latest start could hardly be stronger for a race of this nature – certainly the horse to beat. Time To Torque was very good at his latest start in Brisbane. Powerline resumes over the 1400m – smells like a plan and has been trialling very well – looks a good roughie. Chalk brings very different form lines – if he runs the 1400m out strongly – can be in the finish. Urban Ruler gets the right run again – but looks very well found.
R4 – Night’s Watch the obvious here – looks to have the most upside and hardest to beat – priced accordingly – but cannot find anything around it worthwhile.
R5 – Small and fairly evenly graded field. Lack of speed gives Hellova Street the run it needs – still looks extremely short. Fox Hall went wayyyy too slow in the lead last start – good thing beaten for mine – looks suited here. Supply and Demand resumed with a strong closing effort – draws to need a bit of luck – could be out sprinted a touch – but strong late. Ulmann also has further upside – every possible chance last time – can be fitter. Tricky race – but Fox Play and Supply and Demand look hardest to beat.
R6 – Not keen on this race at all – certainly looking for something to beat Ball of Muscle – but no real confidence down the straight.
R7 #11 Woulda Thought So – #15 Sweet Victory – Little bit obsessed with Sweet Victory’s latest win. Her first two starts were certainly full of merit without winning – but out to the 1500m last time everything that basically could go wrong did – she put them to the sword at the top of the running and charged away late – obviously a huge class rise here – but that win was something else and worthy of taking the risk with her here up in grade. Woulda Thought So looks the knockout roughie – very raw but talented type coming off a complete forgive last time out – winkers on and the inside alley – he will need luck but can be strong late. Throwing Black Sail and Plato in exotics.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Unit Woulda Thought So @ $19 with Centrebet (Happy to take $19 or Best of the Best) – 5 Units Sweet Victory @ $6 with Bet36 (Happy to take $5.50+ or Best of the Best)
R8 – The Oaks – Aloisia comes up a dominant favourite here around the $1.60 mark. Difficult to knock her lead up form – she has certainly had every possible chance her last two – but she has been dymanic and the form around her is looking strong. The one to beat – but not interested in anything near the current odds. Pinot from the Waterhouse yard rolls forward and is the one pacer to catch. Luvaluva the wild card – from the right camp who always look to target this event and does look the horse in need of the 2500m. Hard to make a case for any of the others really from a winning perspective. Reliable Dame looks like she will stay the trip and probably next best. Not a very interesting betting race for mine.
R9 – Impossible race to close the program – would say they are likly to split divisions which makes it even more difficult. Go wide in quaddies – edge to those draw very wide for mine.