THE PLAN: Obviously a very unique day from a punting perspective – more race meetings than you can poke a stick at. Monster fields in Melbourne. Heavily rain-affected surface in Sydney.
All in all it looks like a bit of a death trap.
I will try and pick the eyes out of what is available. And provide broader selections for Flemington and Randwick – for those who are looking to bet race to race and would like a little guidance.
R1 – Tough race to start the day with nothing looking overly convincing or very well setup. Devil’s Lair and Strome look the two best value runners around the $8 mark. Have plenty of time for All Too Soon – he has just been set huge tasks right throughout his career – looks another tough task today.
R2 – Huge spruik around for Seaway here – given the one quiet trial after arriving at the Waller stables and the money has certainly come for this runner in a big way. Epidemic was given little hope first up – that race is a bit smelly though and she could be vulnerable. Almighty Crown ridden out in his trials and should be ready to go – but get the feeling he is clear 2nd pick from the stable. Watch betting very closely with Peretti – comes here off one very quiet trial.
SELECTIONS: 6 / 12-10-1
R3 – Extremely difficult race. Higher Ground the obvious – chased hard from a hopeless on debut and looks to have ability – does have a price to match and loses the senior rider. Mustafa debuted in a strong race – better for the experience and this is far easier. High Point also chased well on debut – has upside. Plagiarist debuts – looks to have ability. China Gale is open to solid improvement.
R4 – Absolutely no idea
R5 – Thought this looked a very nice race for Savvan – very good fresh in an what turned out unsuitable circumstances – settles closer, fitter and has trialled well recently – the one to hold out. Princess Posh can improve back in distance – expected slightly better odds. Drachenfels on the week backup looks the other clear threat. Savvan just a little short with its racing style to want to step into.
SELECTIONS: 6-5-4 / 7
R6 – Rosa Carolina put the writing on the wall last start that she is ready to go – gets the sting out of the track which is to her liking and just has to overcome gate one to be the horse to beat. Kawaikini is a genuinely promising type – gets the rider switch and drop in weight to counter the rise in class – very well found in the market though. Star Sensation had things in her favour last start – still ran time and strong through the line there – maps well and hard to beat again. Sebring Express can improve – wide draw suits – looks value. Lope De Lope is a winner on heavy in the past – soft 1300m fresh is suitable – has upside. Tough race – pattern looks important.
R7 – Small field following scracthings and two main chances for mine. Samantha ready to peak – suited back to the 1100m and on the rain-affected surface – should run very well. To Excess is the threat – absolutely airborne this preparation – strange to go for the apprentice with no claim – but still runs very well. All value has been sucked out of this race following scratchings.
SELECTIONS: 11-12 / 1-4
R8 – Our Belisa can come on from the last start win when still half a run short for mine – should be stronger this time around at the end of her race and looks well placed again. Smooth Whiskey was the closer last time and will look to do similar again – going well – but only limited for mine. Gauguin similar mould – limited type – but well enough placed here. Crosley Hotshot never wins out of turn – but did finish off well last start in a strange race. Again no real value here – bur Our Belisa clearly the horse to beat.
SELECTIONS: 6 / 12-5-1
R9 – If Gitan didn’t look a fly in the ointment here – would be keen on the chances of Lord Macau – he would be capable of giving a sight here from the front – just a touch concerned he will not get things to suit. Conarchie also capable of going forward over this trip and likes it soft – so it could get messy. Istria is the obvious closer – racing well and still on the up – provincial form only to this point – but finds the right race. Pianissimo has been disappointing to date this preparation – but not much has gone right and is the possible strong improver.
R1 – Very wary of the first starter here from the Tim Martin camp in Kara’s Hope – has trialled quietly and looks to have something – his sort of ideal setup. Thought both favourites in Qafia and Setsuna looked vulnerable off recent wins in questionable races. A massive query race with betting a strong guide – especially late.
SELECTIONS: Impossible race – but very wary of Kara’s Hope – especially if any money for it.
R2 – Thought that Miles of Krishan profiled as the improver here – early price is unfortunately gone – but can see why its been well backed – peaks fitness wise and draws to find the right position in running. Invincibella is the obvious – will need a touch of luck from the gate – but does have quality about her and coming out of a fast race.
SELECTIONS: 8 / 3-2-11
R3 – One of the better races of the day for mine. Looking to bet around the early favourite in New Universe – think it looks tested at the 1400m second up. Milwaukee looks an untapped type that held off a very talented horse last start – he is green though – will need to do everything right today. Divine Quality gets to 1400m – has a great turn of foot – will be flashing late. Land of Plenty has exceptional form for this – draws to get the right run and should be strong also.
R4 – Absolutely impossible
R5 – Another race with a few highly talented horses engaged. Property was huge last start with the pattern against – drawn the right part and should be strong to the line. Paret the wildcard – back to 1000m is a huge query – if he is in touch – look out late. Certainly not a two horse race though despite these two looking clearly most talented. 1000m is just a dash and there are some fast horses here in Piracy, Sams Image and Easy Beast.
R6 – Another race with some good talent and there is one at a bit of value here. Our Crown Mistress is deep into her first preparation – thriving on racing – but does come off a very hard run last start and surely has to be vulnerable here drawn the inside. Warranty is lightly raced – comes down from Sydney and looks a quality type. Boorooj draws awkwardly – has good ability and right on the up. Counterplay will be closing hard. Yulong Xingsheng looks the big value runner for me – not in the right spot last time – peaks and draws ideally – McEvoy perfectly suits and should run well at big odds.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1.5 Units Each Way Yulong Xingsheng @ $21 / $4.80 with Bet365 – $21 is readily available.
R7 – MELB CUP – Covered in detail in the preview attached.
Will update races 8-9-10 and provide Quaddie Information after a pattern is established