THE PLAN: Rail True at Rosehill with a bit of rain around – looking at setting up for a Good 4 – Soft 5. On pace should still be an advantage and hard to come from back and wide. Interesting day with a couple of deep races.
Rail True at Flemington and hoping for a fair surface there. Reports that inside and outside fences are superior to the middle down the straight – so sprint races could easily split into two divisions.
R3 #5 Pomelo – #8 Best Guess – Pomelo was given little winning chance first up and ran well enough – given 38 days to get over that run. She draws to hold the front early here if desired and that is where she races best – pressure from Tango Rain is the key – butcan still win from the box seat. Best Guess looks to get the right run no matter what happens – just have to let the other two runners do their thing and he should be strong late – peaks fitness wise today.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Pomelo @ $6 with Bet365 or Best of the Best – 3 Units Best Guess @ $4 with Bet365 or Best of the Best.
R5 #2 I Am Capitan – #7 Equal Balance – Plenty of time for this Kurt Goldman runner here – hopefully straight to the front early and takes all sort of beating from that position. 2nd up win was impressive and out to the 1200m last start – controlled and just beaten by a more experienced galloper . Can be further improved here and the one to beat. I Am Capitan just has the setup and gate to be the danger if Equal Balance is taken on up front – could be dangerous late with luck in running.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1.5 Units I Am Capitan @ Best of the Best – 4.5 Units Equal Balance @ $4.60 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4+ – preferably with Bet365 for the SP guarantee).
R8 #1 Coolring – #10 Magic Alibi – #11 My Country – Magic Alibi looks to be going as well as ever and if she is ever going to run a strong 1200m out – she has the grounding and map to do it here. Looks to lob right behind the speed and hopefully is just cuddled for as long as possible – the one to beat. My Country was set a task last start and still too strong – further improvement expected and can be dangerous late – expecting better odds. Coolring the knockout – trialled well – races well fresh and has the blinkers applied.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Units Coolring @ $26 with Bet365 – 3.5 Units Magic Alibi @ $4.8 with Crownbet (Happy to take $4+ preferably with SP guarantee) – 1.5 Units My Country @ Best of the Best
R9 #1 Crafty Cop – Steps up to the 1400m and looks to get a loose lead here – main dangers look to give a start and he can give a huge sight from up front.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Crafty Cop @ $4.40 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4+ or Best of the Best)
Three horses here are that are all fairly short in the market – playing them in a multi-option for a result as not keen on betting up on all three on this surface. Important to take with 365 if possible for the SP guarantee. Markets could be a touch volatile.
R2 #3 Sekiyama ($2.20) – Trialled up like a talented horse prior to its first start – ridden a bit quiet there and just let the leader get away with murder – better for the effort and looks to find a very suitable race here. Poetic Charmer has had a solid preparation – but steps up to 1400m here and blinkers applied – looks vulnerable at the trip for mine.
R5 #7 Tiny Taj ($2.20) – Strong winner on debut from back in the field at Gosford – touch unlucky to beat a talented horse there – but that form should be strong. Has trialled up well since – sits off them here and looks to have the turn of foot necessary to outsprint these late.
R7 #1 Deceptacon ($2.40) – Drawn ideally here second up to simply be too fast for this field. Beaten by a subsequent city winner fresh – 30 days between runs to recover – should race extremely well on the fresh side and take plenty of catching.
Sekiyama / Tiny Taj / Deceptacon – 3 Units @ $11+ with Bet365
R1 – 7-3-15-11
R2 – 10-7-4-5
R3 – Very difficult
R4 – Cup of Tea
R5 #5 Viridine – #7 Goodfella – #13 Andaz – Tossing up whether to get involved in this race – simply because of the depth of quality to the race. Looks the highlight race of the carnival for mine. Just have a huge opinion of the Godolphin runner Viridine and despite the awkward draw – have to take the punt on a great ride from Brenton Avdulla. Goodfella is an enigmatic – explosive type that looks big odds – can see Jason Collett being extremely patient here and this horse can be dangerous late at odds. Andaz the wildcard – thought his effort was huge fresh and can certainly be strong late also at big odds. Choosing to bet around runners that look to have targeted other feature races and come here as a second grand final or different option. Scared of this Edmond runner Eptimum – just loved its win at the Valley last week when found the rail – everything did go its way there though and its short enough up to this grade!
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Viridine @ Best of the Best or $8.50 with Bet365 (another highly volatile betting race) – 1 Unit Goodfella @ $23 with Centrebet or Best of the Best – 1 Unit Andaz @ $41 with Bet365/Centrebet
R6 #6 Heavens Above – Sucker for the Tim Martin stable – just love backing his horses. No doubt this has been the target for this mare this preparation and her latest run in Sydney was an outstanding barrier trial for a race of this nature. Her racing style dictates that she needs a bit of luck in running – but if she gets a trail up – she can certainly be in the finish here late.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2 Units Win and Place Heavens About @ $15/$4.60 with Sportsbet/Luxebt/Crownbet – $14 with Bet365
R7 – THE DERBY – 4-7-2-12 – Clear value runners in what looks a very open derby to me are Eshtiraak and Weather With You. Not many I could put the line through though in a very open race.
R8 – 2-9-12-13 – Extremely hard race!
R9 – 1-8-9-5 – Another extremely hard race – pattern important
R4 #2 Mount Bulla – Very strong maiden winner two starts back in fast time. Straight to a BM60 at Scone and wide no cover through just off a fast tempo – right there until very late. Rock hard fit – drops in class and surely only needs even luck to be finish on strongly at this level.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3.5 Units Mount Bulla @ $6.50 with UBET / $6 with Bet365 – Happy to take $4.60 or better – again preferably with Bet365 for the SP.