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THE PLAN: Rail +3M at Rosehill – should be hard to run on from back and wide and setting up giving plenty of allowance to those on pace.

Rail +3M at Flemington – again giving allowance to those close to the speed and on the inside – keeping a close eye on this though. Expecting the outside fence to be popular in the bigger field straight race.

ROSEHILL 

R1 #7 Sangita – Heavily backed on debut – thought this filly went extremely well with the tempo and pattern of the night completely against her. Unable to get outside the speed there – her task was nearly impossible. Finds a very suitable race here and just hoping she can get outside the speed this time – can be too strong for Secret Lady late.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Sangita @ $3.30 with Bet365 or Best of the Best

R4 #8 Hilary Step (PLACE) – Think this mare is ready to peak following two runs full of merit this preparation. Confirmation of the intention to roll forward is exactly what I was hoping to see and that makes this mare clear second pick behind Bon Ami. Taking the conservative option and suggesting a Place Only play.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 4.5 Units Place @ $3.10 with Bet365 – Happy to take $3+

R9 #5 He’s A Given – Another that can take advantage of a change of tactics here. FInds a very suitable race to improve in. Absolutely no luck in recent starts and can get on speed here quite cheaply. Hard fit – he can battle on strongly from that position. Those hard in the market look to have possible convictions and happy to take the punt on this bloke today at big odds. 

SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Unit Win He’s A Given @ $34 with Bet365 – Happy to take $26+ / 3 Units Place @ $6 with Sportsbet – Happy to take $5+

FLEMINGTON

R5 #1 Qewy – #3 Kiwia -Looks too good to be true – which always scares me in staying events. He simply looks better than these horses – any luck at all in running and he should be in the finish. Saving on Kiwia – chased Qewy home last start and runs all full of merit – looks the danger.

SUGGESTED BETTING:5 Units Qewy @ $3.20 with Bet365 – 1 Unit Kiwia @ Best of the Best

R6 #1 Heavens Above – #10 Savapinski – Just cannot let this mare go around without me. Given a perfect hit out last week without ever threatening. She draws poorly again and will need luck – but she just looks better than these to me and can be finishing over them late. Savapinski and Payroll the two runners that look suited out to the 2000m – the Waterhouse yard is just airborne and she is likely to be on speed – so choosing her as the best second option.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Heavens Above @ $7 with Bet365 – 2 Units Savapinski @ $6 with Bet365

ROSEHILL 

R3 #5 Pomelo – #8 Best Guess – Pomelo was given little winning chance first up and ran well enough – given 38 days to get over that run. She draws to hold the front early here if desired and that is where she races best – pressure from Tango Rain is the key – butcan still win from the box seat. Best Guess looks to get the right run no matter what happens – just have to let the other two runners do their thing and he should be strong late – peaks fitness wise today.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Pomelo @ $6 with Bet365 or Best of the Best – 3 Units Best Guess @ $4 with Bet365 or Best of the Best.

R5 #2 I Am Capitan – #7 Equal Balance – Plenty of time for this Kurt Goldman runner here – hopefully straight to the front early and takes all sort of beating from that position. 2nd up win was impressive and out to the 1200m last start – controlled and just beaten by a more experienced galloper . Can be further improved here and the one to beat. I Am Capitan just has the setup and gate to be the danger if Equal Balance is taken on up front – could be dangerous late with luck in running.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 1.5 Units I Am Capitan @ Best of the Best – 4.5 Units Equal Balance @ $4.60 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4+ – preferably with Bet365 for the SP guarantee).

R8 #1 Coolring – #10 Magic Alibi – #11 My Country – Magic Alibi looks to be going as well as ever and if she is ever going to run a strong 1200m out – she has the grounding and map to do it here. Looks to lob right behind the speed and hopefully is just cuddled for as long as possible – the one to beat. My Country was set a task last start and still too strong – further improvement expected and can be dangerous late – expecting better odds. Coolring the knockout – trialled well – races well fresh and has the blinkers applied.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Units Coolring @ $26 with Bet365 – 3.5 Units Magic Alibi @ $4.8 with Crownbet (Happy to take $4+ preferably with SP guarantee) – 1.5 Units My Country @ Best of the Best

R9 #1 Crafty Cop – Steps up to the 1400m and looks to get a loose lead here – main dangers look to give a start and he can give a huge sight from up front.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Crafty Cop @ $4.40 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4+ or Best of the Best)

NEWCASTLE 
Three horses here are that are all fairly short in the market – playing them in a multi-option for a result as not keen on betting up on all three on this surface. Important to take with 365 if possible for the SP guarantee. Markets could be a touch volatile.

R2 #3 Sekiyama ($2.20) – Trialled up like a talented horse prior to its first start – ridden a bit quiet there and just let the leader get away with murder – better for the effort and looks to find a very suitable race here. Poetic Charmer has had a solid preparation – but steps up to 1400m here and blinkers applied – looks vulnerable at the trip for mine.

R5 #7 Tiny Taj ($2.20) – Strong winner on debut from back in the field at Gosford – touch unlucky to beat a talented horse there – but that form should be strong. Has trialled up well since – sits off them here and looks to have the turn of foot necessary to outsprint these late.

R7 #1 Deceptacon ($2.40) – Drawn ideally here second up to simply be too fast for this field. Beaten by a subsequent city winner fresh – 30 days between runs to recover – should race extremely well on the fresh side and take plenty of catching.

SUGGESTED MULTI’s

Sekiyama / Tiny Taj / Deceptacon – 3 Units @ $11+ with Bet365

FLEMINGTON

R1 – 7-3-15-11
R2 – 10-7-4-5
R3 – Very difficult
R4 – Cup of Tea

R5 #5 Viridine – #7 Goodfella – #13 Andaz – Tossing up whether to get involved in this race – simply because of the depth of quality to the race. Looks the highlight race of the carnival for mine. Just have a huge opinion of the Godolphin runner Viridine and despite the awkward draw – have to take the punt on a great ride from Brenton Avdulla. Goodfella is an enigmatic – explosive type that looks big odds – can see Jason Collett being extremely patient here and this horse can be dangerous late at odds. Andaz the wildcard – thought his effort was huge fresh and can certainly be strong late also at big odds. Choosing to bet around runners that look to have targeted other feature races and come here as a second grand final or different option. Scared of this Edmond runner Eptimum – just loved its win at the Valley last week when found the rail – everything did go its way there though and its short enough up to this grade!

SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Viridine @ Best of the Best or $8.50 with Bet365 (another highly volatile betting race) – 1 Unit Goodfella @ $23 with Centrebet or Best of the Best – 1 Unit Andaz @ $41 with Bet365/Centrebet

R6 #6 Heavens Above – Sucker for the Tim Martin stable – just love backing his horses. No doubt this has been the target for this mare this preparation and her latest run in Sydney was an outstanding barrier trial for a race of this nature. Her racing style dictates that she needs a bit of luck in running – but if she gets a trail up – she can certainly be in the finish here late.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 2 Units Win and Place Heavens About @ $15/$4.60 with Sportsbet/Luxebt/Crownbet – $14 with Bet365

R7 – THE DERBY – 4-7-2-12 – Clear value runners in what looks a very open derby to me are Eshtiraak and Weather With You. Not many I could put the line through though in a very open race.

R8 – 2-9-12-13 – Extremely hard race!
R9 – 1-8-9-5 – Another extremely hard race – pattern important

DUBBO 

R4 #2 Mount Bulla – Very strong maiden winner two starts back in fast time. Straight to a BM60 at Scone and wide no cover through just off a fast tempo – right there until very late. Rock hard fit – drops in class and surely only needs even luck to be finish on strongly at this level.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 3.5 Units Mount Bulla @ $6.50 with UBET / $6 with Bet365 – Happy to take $4.60 or better – again preferably with Bet365 for the SP.