EXPECTED PATTERN: Rail True – Watering of the track can be an issue at Warwick Farm with the fence sometimes a little dicey, especially as the program goes on.
R2 – Very close to a selection here. Gresham and Kookabaa the two horse play. Kookabaa likely to lead and control – Gresham the closer. The threat of the unraced early favourite has just stopped me making it a play. Zeppelin has trialled up well enough to suggest a knockout contender also.
R3 #4 Karavali – Think this mare is worth another chance at odds here. Forgive the last start failure and she would be clear top pick here. Hopefully slots in right behind the speed here and can improve significantly.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2 Units Karavali @ $8 with various. Happy to take $7+
R5 #1 Kaepernick – #4 Highly Geared – Looks a good betting race here – Highly Geared the runner on pace that looks well placed fresh and should give a huge sight. Kaepernick the closer – suited back to this grade. Trials of Samantha just looked well below her best.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3.5 Units Kaepernick @ $3.20 with UBET – Happy to take $3+ or Best Fluctuation. 2.5 Units Highly Geared @ $8.00 with Bet365 – Happy to take $7+
R6 – Another race where I was keen to play Princess Posh and Sisken who look to control the tempo. Both are slight queries at a strong 1400m with their setups. Strong money for I Am Serious not what I wanted to see. Combined with the queries against – prefer to just stay out here.
R7 #5 Peacock – THIS SELECTION WILL BE CONFIRMED BY EMAIL AT LEAST 30 MINUTES PRIOR TO RACE – Just want to make sure you can run on before making this a selection. Will confirm staking also at later time.
R8 #3 To Excess – #8 Validate – To Excess resumed from a long break with an extremely strong win – strong through the line and plenty of physical improvement to come from that – like that he sticks at the 1000m and gets a strong tempo to suits his style – should be finishing hard late. Validate resumes – also suited by the tempo and with Bowman aboard should be given his chance to close late. Scared of Leami Astray – just hoping the pressure from out wide plays against him.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units To Excess @ $6 with Bet365 – Happy to take $5.50 or Best Fluctuation – 2 Units Validate @ $8 with Crownbet or $7.50 with Bet365.
R4 #1 Mr Tindall – Interesting horse – first up for the new trainer and connections. Very good on debut – won on protest but high merit in the run and race. Went to town and pulled up with issues. Has been to the trials and noticeably retrained out of it and looked after by a heavyweight – strong rider. If he shows up in anything like the shape he was in on debut – he could well blow these away.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Mr Tindall @ $3.50 with Bet365 / $3.40 with UBET – Happy to take $3.20+