TRACK PATTERN: Rail +9m tomorrow and what looks like it should be a track in the Soft 6 to Heavy 8 range following some solid rain today. Hopefully closer to the Soft 6 end of the scale. Playing for a fair surface – but very wary that we could be working with a hot rail or down the outside bias – fence more likely – but Randwick when wet can always throw up a wildcard or two.
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THE PLAN: Randwick a “who knows” in regards to track condition and pattern. Not expecting it to be as bad as the Heavy 8 they have put up. Working to a 6-7 and hoping the inside is OK – at least early. Keeping a very close eye on things though. Going to be extremely cautios with early plays for Randwick.
R1 #2 Catanzaro – Just having a small play here. Have rated it quite short price wise – but there are huge queries over this race. Wet has only enhanced the queries. Have to be with this bloke at the odds. Very scared of the Godolphin runners and the hard fit favourite.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Unit Catanzaro @ $17 with Bet365.
R5 #1 Collateral – Another very small play here at the value. Very talented horse resuming – obviously destined for longer assignments,. Can sprint well fresh here against this level of opposition.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Unit Collateral @ $23 with Centrebet
R6 #3 Goodfella – #4 Albumin – Goodfella looks one of the better bets on the day for me. Solid first up over the 1100m – strong late – then straight to 1400m and a huge performance when working throughout. If that run has not tanked him – he should be too strong for these late again. Albumin I am scared off – prefer dry going – but he is flying and finally draws a gate (could be a negative now) – just cannot let him beat me.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 5 Units Goodfella @ $2.7 with Bet365 or Best of the Best – 1 Unit Albumin @ Best of the Best.
R9 #1 Foxplay – #13 Shillelagh – #17 Petition – Love Foxplay’s set up here. I know she is a G1 winner at a mile – but love her over the 1400m. Drops back from G1 1600m in Open Company – to 1400m Mares Grade – draws a gate and looks like only bad luck can keep her out of the finish. Shillelagh wasn’t given a chance first up and treating it as a very positive barrier trial – can improve. Petition peaks, gets the blinkers and should race closer to the speed – can improve.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Foxplay @ $4.40 with Bet365 – 1 Unit Shillelagh @ $10 with Bet365 – 1 Unit Petition @ Best of the Best.
R6 #1 All Stand – #4 Bon Amis – Have been waiting for Bon Amis to resurrface and it finds an ideal race here. Thought Envy of All paraded very light first up and although back in trip with the winkers on – could still be vulnerable. Bon Amis was dominant on debut beating a smart type in Latin Boy – then went straight to C1 grade and dominant again late. Drawn to settle where ever required and is clearly the horse to beat. All Stand worthy of saving on – has speed and fitness – liked the soft going and should be there for a long way.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Unit All Stand @ Best Tote/SP – 5 Units Bon Amis @ $3.10 with Bet365 or Best tote/SP (Hoping for good support with Envy of All)