EXPECTED PATTERN: Rail +3m and a Good 3 surface. Last time we saw the fence chop out late at Warwick Farm after the rails looked OK early in the program. Expecting similar here and playing that way.
R3 #2 Canberra – #6 Marabel – Sad scratching of I Am Serious here who looked a very dicey conveyance from the inside draw. Just have to be against Alluvion here out to the 1300m – she is flying – but has been weak late at the end of 1200m her last three starts (obviously in better grade). Hoping Kathy puts a bit of pressure into the race and can make Alluvion vulnerable late. Canberra is low flying this preparation – should arguably have won again last start and is a perfect horse for Bowman – gets last crack and can be strong through the line. Marabel is the interesting horse – thought she was really warming up on the line late last start when running into a dead end – down in the weights and soft trip – should be strong late.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Canberra @ $4.80 with Luxbet (Happy to take $4.40+) – 2 Units Marabel @ $9 with Bet365 (Happy to take $7+)
R4 #7 Rebel Miss – Only really scared of one runner here and that is Realise Potential with the blinkers back on from the softer draw. The stable is showing slight signs of life – but just cannot find him at the $3.60 currently on offer. Rebel Miss should stalk these and simply out sprint them. The sprint was dragged out of her last start when forced wide and working throughout. Camps behind them this time and can round them up at the business end.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 5 Units Rebel Miss @ $3 with Bet365 (Happy to take $3+)
R5 #1 Jessamin – #4 Memento – Cannot for the life of me work out why Intrinsic is so short in the market here and has been backed early. Her two starts today were solid enough but this is a pretty serious race with potential black type performers engaged and she will need to have come on to justify the price. Jessamin resumes off a lengthy spell with one short course trial – from the right stable to be ready to go though and she oozes class – can see her running a huge race here fresh on the way to better races. Memento is a maiden – but also looks a quality type in the making and her trials have also been first rate. Can see her measuring right up to this grade fresh.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Jessamin @ $6 with Bet365 (Happy to take $5.50+ early) – 3 Units Memento @ $6 with Bet365 (Happy to take $5.50+ early)