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EXPECTED PATTERN: Rail +6m and a Good 4 surface. High winds around also. This setup usually allows those off the pace a better chance than usual around this circuit. Still an advantage to be up there and avoid coming wide before the turn.

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R7 #3 Shock Alert – #5 Wine Bush – #6 Sambro –  Enough against the favourite here Mahalangur to want to bet against it today. Just feel due to his poor racing style and the raise in distance and that he could well be vulnerable against the older horses. Shock Alert looks to take control of affairs early – either lead or outside the speed – looks an improving type that is well and truly up to this level. Sambro draws the right gate to be dangerous – drops in grade and fitter for the run. Wine Bush needs luck from the gate but certainly can be strong late with luck in running and looks the knockout.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Shock Alert @ $6 with Bet365 (Happy to take $6 or Top Fluctuation) – 2 Units Sambro @ $5 with Bet365 or Top Fluctuation – 1 Unit Wine Bush @ $13 with Bet365 (Happy to take $12 Plus)