THE PLAN – Muswellbrook today on another thinish looking program. Again siding with caution here with legitimate queries over a few runners and not getting enough meat in their price to take the plunge.
MUSWELLBROOK EXPECTED PATTERN: Good 4 surface – with 20mm of irrigation in the past seven days. Expecting another hard and fast surface which does aid those up on the speed.
R1 – Very interested in Miss Imagination ($3.5) here – thought she was strong enough in a very deep maiden first up. Back in distance, fitter and back in field strength here – she looks the horse to beat. The unraced favourite is just enough of a query runner to stop me wanting to bet.
R2 – Spice Treasure ($2 – if had a different rider) looks the winner here – the rider is just too big a query to get involved at any price. Should have won a strong maiden last start – and can just see that happening again here despite being perfectly placed.
R3 – Don Pellegrino ($4.5) – Not a race I want to take part in – however, the three early favourites all look very vulnerable. He is a hard fit, tough horse that is certainly up to these. If ridden positively – is the horse to hold out clearly.
R4 #2 Pindara ($3.75) – #4 Refuge Bay ($3) – Not much between these two and just giving the edge to Refuge Bay – simply because he should be in a more prominent position in running – should be camped directly behind the speed and ready to peak here. Pindara is fitter again and suited back to this grade – the one to hold out late.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Refuge Bay @ $4.20 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4+) – 2 Units Pindara @ Best Tote/SP
R5 #2 Crimson Sun ($2.25) – Was all set to back Crimson Son here and save on Privily – but the $5+ Privily disappeared. Going to go with a smaller play on Crimson Sun straight out as a result. Loved his win on debut for the new stable – he should rocket through the grades at this level.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Crimson Sun @ $2.70 with Bet365 or Best Tote SP
R6 – Keen to bet around Majestic Pedrille here – just cannot tie down which way to go – so choosing to stay out. Little Shocker has been terribly unlucky last two starts and can improve significantly with the rider change – extremely well priced around the $7 mark. Annadale Lass is suited in this particular race – rider enough to stop me there after last week. Jar of Hearts is a quality horse – has trialled well and hopefully pushes forward – skinny enough at current quote though. Alliterate is suited back to this grade and can easily handle these if in the mood. Quaddie race only.