THE PLAN – Two meetings in play today. Wyong a skinny card – looks very limited opportunities following scratchings. Goulburn a couple of betting races also late in the day.
R2 #5 College Romance ($11) – Just an interesting horse here that wanted to point out – was keen to be on for the place at around the $4.60 mark before the scratching of Lightning Nick and the paid place dividends reduced to 2. This horse can definitely improve significantly at her second start. Everything against on debut in a slowly run race – can box seat here and run well at odds. The favoured runners do not look bullet proof – so can sneak into the placings at odds without surprising.
R4 #4 Concisely ($3.50) – Third up now – blinkers go on – will lead early and probably have to see what sort of pressure Coys is going to apply – either way, should be right there throughout. Hoping he can pinch a break on High Tranquility and be very hard to run down.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Concisely @ $4.50 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4+)
R7 #6 Lightning Nic ($3.5) – #12 Pahruli ($5) – Had no intention in betting into this race until the robots went crazy with the price of the favourite Don’t Give A Damn. The favourite has had just the one public trial – went well against a subsequent winner (over short course) – not seen since – now debuts over the 1300m with an apprentice aboard – seems extremely short at the $1.80. Lightning Nic resumes for Jason Coyle – three very positive city performances at her first prep – resumes from a lengthy spell but has had the two trials and the stable is obviously going very well. Pahruli has also shown glimpses of ability in the wrong races – peaks here third run back – blinkers go on and can race much closer to the speed today.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Lightning Nic @ $4.20 with Bet365 (Happy to take $4+ or Best Tote/SP) – 3 Units Pahruli @ $11 with UBET (Happy to take $7+)
R8 #3 Only Choice ($4) – #8 Chuck’n’Paul ($5) – Was betting here until checking the prices before send out. Only Choice is a promising galloper resuming – had a good grounding in his first preparation and can have plenty of scope for further improvement – fitness the query – concerned of the solid drift in early betting. Chuck’n’Paul a strong debut winner last time out – doesn’t find the easiest C1 around – has good upside though and looks likely to be strong to the line here. Was $11-$12 when typing this up and now into $5.50 most places – simply missed the boat with the price.