EXPECTED PATTERN: Rail +9m and a Good 3 expected. Solid enough wind around to assure a fast racing surface. Would be amazed if on pace was not an advantage – detrimental to be coming from back and wide.
R1 #4 Larlabrook – #10 She Knows – Two horse play here. Larlabrook is a talented galloper resuming – looked to have plenty of improvement to come from his first preparation and from his recent trial – certainly doesn’t look to have gone backwards – gets plenty of room from the wide gate here and runs well. She Knows is another interesting runner resuming – im not a huge Danny Williams camp fan away from home – but glad to see him put this horse away after breaking through in maiden grade in fast time. Can be right on the speed throughout here.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Larlabrook @ Best of the Best (Luxbet) or Top Fluctuation – hoping for a drift from the draw with G Ryan on board. 3 Units She Knows @ $4.80 with Bet365 or Best of the Best.
R3 #1 Single Bullet – #2 Viridine – Have been in the corner of Single Bullet right from his first start – but was always keen to see him following his next spell. From his trials he has come right on and can give a huge sight in a race of this nature. Settles on pace and should be strong to the line. Viridine is an interesting horse – did a lot right in his first prep and another that looks to have developed during the break – should be on speed and looks the clear value of the Godolphin runners. Albumin at $26 is a knockout hope ridden off the speed today.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Single Bullet @ $5 with Centrebet (Happy to take $4.60+ – preferably with SP guarantee) – 1.5 Units Viridine @ $7 with various
R4 – Just missed the $7.50 Burning Passion this morning which has thrown me off the race. I was all set to have 3 Units Burning Passion and 1.5 Units No Doubt. But just not confident enough in the race to want ot play at the reduced odds.
R5 #2 Champagne Cuddles – #9 Pandamonium – Think this horse has a big edge on this field – a little pocket rocket that just keeps finding the line. She only needs luck in the first 200-300m of the race to be finishing all over the top of these late. Pandemonium is the knockout horse – will lead and give a huge sight – stable is flying and no surprise to see her kick kick kicking late.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 5 Units Champagne Cuddles @ $3.70 with Centrebet (Happy to take $3.50+ or Best of the Best)
R2 #2 Showtime – #7 Toga Picta – Short priced favourite here in Royal Symphony is obviously a highly promising type – but he meets a couple of smart Sydney types today that have the jump on him from a fitness perspective. Showtime is a lovely type of horse that never got out of first gear breaking through last time – heis ready to go on with it now. Toga Picta is a very smart animal for mine – stable have chosen the softer option sending him down to Melbourne – first up run was full of merit – trial since impressive – he will run very well here.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3.5 Units Toga Picta @ $12 with Centrebet/Sportsbet/Unibet or $11 Bet365 – 1.5 Units Showtime @ $10 with Bet365
SIDE NOTE: There are markets available with Sportsbet/William Hill with the favourite out. I believe Toga Picta is $7.50 and Showtime around $7. If you were to go this way I would suggest 4 Units Toga Picta / 2 Units Showtime.
R6 #1 Free Standing – #10 Art D’Amour – #12 Alaskan Wolf – Another race where Sydney (NSW) form looks underplayed. Impregnable comes up a very short priced favourite and I cannot really work out why. Honest enough horse but form overall is very hollow – has been well placed. Free Standing is coming out of three very strong races his past three starts – back in grade and distance look suitable and he simply looks over the odds. Art D’Amour was beaten 2.7L behind Super Too first up in crazily fast time – the new stable looks to have him racing well and he is better than these with even luck – rider is a query against – but price compensates. Alaskan Wolf was a last start Wyong winner – again, that form lines up very well here – the rider again is a query – but he arrives here in good form – 1200m no issue and should run well.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Unit Free Standing @ $16 with Centrebet – 3.5 Units Art D’Amour @ $7.50 with all (Happy to take $7+) – 1.5 Units Alaskan Wolf @ $17 with Bet365 (Happy to take $15+)
LATE MAIL TO FOLLOW ON NEWCASTLE MEETING IF APPROPRIATE