EXPECTED PATTERN: Rail True and a Good 3. Windy conditions prevailing with what looks a similar wind to that which produced some very fast times and a leaders paradise a few weeks ago. Setting up with that in mind – favours to those on the speed are very likely. Closer to the fence in running also a likely advantage on races 1200m+
R1 – Breeders Plate – Tossing and turning over this race. Want to play – but just do not have the confidence to chime in. Take your pick from the four below as the best value option. Can suggest playing them in a quinella for extreme value.
#4 OSORNO – Liked his trials and think he will be strong through the line here – just concerned where he gets to in the run.
#8 INVINCIBLE LAD – Very fast horse that can be better for his trial. If there is one that is just too quick for this – this looks the horse. Last 100m the worry.
#9 OUTRAGEOUS – Loved him as a type and what he did at the trials – like Osorno – not sure where the heck he gets to in the run. Can be very strong late.
#13 SPIN – Loved his trial and think he will learn plenty from the experience. Was hesitant to take the gaps there – but was strong to the line late despite all his greeness. Can camp right behind them here and strong late.
R2 #14 Fiesta – Just have to have something on this runner – simply because of the price – cannot let it go around. Very difficult race and this is a highly speculative bet. But getting a price to warrant it.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Unit Fiesta @ $19 with Bet365 or Best of the Best
R8 #1 Libran – #9 Life Less Ordinary – Looks a solid two horse play here – cannot find any of the interstate raiders and these two look ideally setup to run well here. Libran was dominant last start – out sprinted them and strong through the line – better setup here for mine (apart from the weights) and can run extremely well again. Life Less Ordinary has been crying out for the 2400m he gets today – right rider aboard and is the other main contender.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3 Units Libran @ $10 with Centrebet / $8.50 with Sportsbet (Happy to take $7.50 with Bet365 also) – 3 Units Life Less Ordinary @ $4.60 with Bet365 or Best of the Best.
R9 #10 I Thought So – Given a very average ride first up – should naturally box seat here and fitter for the effort last time out. Even luck he should be first challenger to the leaders and extremely hard to hold out.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 3.5 Units I Thought So @ $3.80 with Bet365 – happy to take $3.80 or Best of the Best/Top Fluctuation.
R2 #2 Cannon Run – Have been following this horse with strong interest this preparation – he is ready to peak now off the back of two very solid effforts. Suited by the small field where they should run along and he has the turn of foot to outsprint these late.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Cannon Run @ $4.20 with Sportsbet (Happy to take $3.60+, preferably with Bet365 to gain the SP)
R7 #3 Lord Kingsley – Not sold by Grand Finalist as yet and for him to come up $1.35 here just seems ridiculous. Lord Kinglsey is coming back from being tried at 2000m. He has some quality for around him that looks ideal here and his recent trials have been well and truly up to a race of this nature. Another that looks suited by the small field – should be genuine tempo and he can be strong late.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Lord Kingsley @ $4.20 with Bet365 – Happy to take $3.60 plus – agains preferably with Bet365.