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Warwick Farm

EXPECTED TRACK PATTERN
Rail True and a Good 3/4 surface. Expecting on pace to be an advantage. But not impossible to make ground. Hoping the fence is certainly not a highway.

THE DAY:  A pretty average day. Queries galore and no real edge in the bigger field (value) races. Staying pretty conservative overall.

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Race 1 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R1 #4 Augustus – This horse looks an improver here – not suited at all by the slow tempo last time out when chasing home a different Waterhouse galloper. Pandemonium looks far more likely to roll alone here. With that 1550m run under his belt Augustus can be ready to go now, Bowman aboard and hopefully tracks the favourite everywhere.

Suggested Betting – 2 Units Each Way Augustus @ $11 with Luxbet / $4 place with Crownbet (Happy to take $9+ Win / $3.50+ Place)

Race 3 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R3 – Have tied myself in knots over this race. Confident Al Mah Haha and Dissolution are the two runners to be with. Just not enough value there with queries still hovering. Staying out.

Race 4 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R4 #1 Realise Potential – Nictock has had all the favours of late – but is a good enough horse to take advantage of them – again likely to set his own tempo. Realise Potential is the benchmark horse here though and drops in grade from a strong last start effort – can settle closer in the run and if ridden positively – can be too strong late for Nictock.

Suggested Betting – 4 Units Realise Potential @ $3.20 (Happy to take $3.20 or Top Fluctuation)

Race 7 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R7 – Bolero King a borderline selection – Priced currently around what I would suggest is fair – but not a lot of meat on the bone for what is a questionable choice. He has been a touch weak late his last couple so prefer to stay out here.