Developing rain is the issue at Hawkesbury today – Good 4 at present but around half way through the program, solid rain is predicted. Going to suggest a play in the first race and in race 7 (both horses suited wet/dry) and then hold off to see what develops with the weather as it would greatly affect selections in R6.
EARLY PLAY – Race 1 – Race 7
POSSIBLE LATE MAIL – Race 6
Race 1 Tips & Bet Suggestions
R1 #3 Minnesota – #5 Goldfinch – Goldfinch just looks too fast again here – gets first use of the track, drawn ideally – Panya should run them along and she is just a fast horse. Minnesota looks the possible improver back in grade on a much firmer surface. Florid was all but handed the win last time out and looks certain to be crossed from the inside gate. Cockles jumps in class and Adjective will have to do a bunch of work from the gate with the big weight.
Suggested Betting – 5 Units Goldfinch @ $2.80 with Bet365 (Happy to take $2.60+ – preferably with the SP backup) – 1 Unit Minnesota @ $5.50+ – Currently Sportsbet/Luxbet/TAB/William Hill
Race 7 Tips & Bet Suggestions
R7 #4 Concessions – #5 Chin Ups – Concessions is an under rated galloper resuming – obviously his ideal distance is longer than this but he did run Arbeitsam to 4.2L over this trip first up last time and that is well and truly good enough form for this. Chin Ups has put in two super efforts off a long spell – can still be peaking fitness wise – draws a gate for the first time this prep here and will appreciate the weight drop as well. Both look solid value options in a competitive race. Scared of Bombardier – but this is tougher than last time and he is likely to roll forward and work – or have to sit wide throughout here.
Suggested Betting – 2.5 Units Concessions @ $8 with Bet365 (Happy to Take $7+) – 2.5 Units Chin Ups @ $10 with Bet365 (Happy to take $8+)