EXPECTED PATTERN – Rail in the true position – 22mm of irrigation has been placed on the track in the last week. Expecting a good surface but likely to get off the fence still a touch in the straight. Of recent times it is typically a difficult track to lead and win on – just off the speed one off with cover the ideal striking position.
THE PLAN – A couple of plays today. Main banker for the day was to be Misty Lad in R4 but with the scratching of the early favourite Argemone – all value has now been sucked from the race.
Race 1 Tips & Bet Suggestions
R1 #2 Itasca – Have some time for this horse and he certainly finds a race where he can be very competitive. Ran behind the early favourite first up – but desperately unlucky there when held up at a vital stage. Back to his home track here – should roll forward and runs a very positive race. The slight concern is his trait to want to hang a bit under pressure – that will stop me betting more confidently on him.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2 Units Itasca @ $6.50 with Bet365 (Happy to take $5.50+)
Race 5 Tips & Bet Suggestions
R5 #7 Byzantium ($10) – #8 Chosen Assasin ($8) – #9 Key To Glory ($4.25) – Key To Glory looks the horse to beat here – blinkers on after a very solid debut in a very strong maiden – extremely surprised he is not favourite here. Happy to bet around the Waterhouse runner Preferito (better over futher) and Tutu (better if finding the fence and looks likely to be caught out). The query runners look to be Byzantium (Back in distance with the blinkers going on) and Chosen Assassin (first up off some quiet but nice trials) – getting solid enough value about each to have something on as well.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 1 Units Byzantium @ $16 with Bet365 (Happy to take $15+ or Best Tote/SP) – 1 Unit Chosen Assassin @ $12 with Bet365 (Happy to take $10+ or Best Tote/SP) – 4 Units Key To Glory @ $7 with Bet365/Sportsbet/NSWTAB (Happy to take $5.50+)