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Muswellbrook

GAME PLAN – Strange meeting with some decent targets but not everything lines up. Will provide some detail in race comments.

 

Race 1 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R1 – Grasslands should just be too good for these. Slight warning attached – Synthetic Hoof Filler has been applied – very hard to tell if this is an issue or merely superficial. Prefer to watch and learn here.

Race 2 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R2 – Competitive 1000m event with many angles to it:

Glenn Road – Best form clearly – first up for 244 days. Strange rider decision – going for a non-claiming apprentice on a highly weighted commodity. Enough to stop me backing the horse – but certainly the one to beat.

Terra Reign – Won an extremely weak 900m maiden on debut at Scone – didn’t exactly attack the line there and looks a very solid risk up in grade. Currently, short priced favourite and have it marked $7.50.

RACE SUMMARY: Terra Reign comes up very short here ($2.60ish) – desperately tried to find something to beat it with confidence. Most runners have solid enough form to be competitive and most look up to winning. Glenn Road clearly best form – but has genuine queries against it. Trades Hall, Miss Gigi and White Eagle can all improve without surprising.

Race 3 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R3 – Celebris gets his chance to breakthrough here – will not find a more suitable lineup and does look to have a decent enough grounding for the 1750m. Short enough to watch it go around though.

Race 4 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R4 – Another highly competitive 1000m event with different angles:

Musical Query – Horse going extremely well – prefer her drawn outside horses as may get dictated to from the inside with the Jnr rider aboard. Can win – but cannot have confidence.

Rothbury – Hard horse to work out – not sure if it returned this preparation unfit and has been racing itself back into shape – or the horse could simply be not at his best. If he is still yet to peak – then he looks ideally setup and can be in the finish. I’m leaning to him struggling though … Query runner

Rubymay – Hard fit runner that was bias affected last start when coming down the middle of the track – 30 days since and does look suited at this trip fresh. Another contender in an open race.

Gone Viral – Has been ridden very poorly its last three starts – gets the key rider change which can lead to sharp improvement. Should be just behind the speed here and chiming in – 1000m is as far as he wants – still looks strong value.

Music Magic – Drops from city grade to this – hard going type that has to be let run for mine. If they were to adopt those tactics here – this horses could run a bold race. If held up – would be happy to bet around it at current odds.

RACE SUMMARY – Gone Viral looks the value here – should apprecaite the rider change and find a strong challenging position. Ruby May the other that should be closing. Musical Query draws poorly and has the query rider – but is racing well and should be right on the pace throughout.

Race 5 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R5 – Nothing can win this race! Nothing!

Race 6 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R6 #3 Can I Have – Have been waiting for Can I Have to surface again since no luck in town last start –  32 days between runs looks ideal for staying at this trip. Greg Ryan ideal rider and should be strong late

R6 #13 He’s Our Toy Boy – He’s Our Toy Boy sets up well – does not win out of turn but finds an on pace position here in a race devoid of pace and hopefully runs along from the turn – he is a touch one paced but will keep giving.

Others with claims look to be Anecdote and Randiki – they are well found though under todays conditions.

SUGGESTED BETTING: 4 Units Can I Have @ Best Tote/SP – 2 Units He’s Our Toy Boy @ $12 with Bet365 (Happy to take $10+ – $11 with all other corporates at this stage)

Race 7 Tips & Bet Suggestions

R7 #4 Love None – Can improve sharply off first up effort where the blinkers came off, had no luck at all in the run and pattern was against. 33 days since looks ideal – blinkers back on. Improver that looks good value at the $9 currently around.

R7 #9 Squared – Tough horse to follow who has looked to have ability on occasion in the past. Arguably was given a fitness building run first up – blinkers go back on and another than can improve sharply in what looks a very suitable race.

SUGGESTED BETTING: Betting conservatively here due to speculation in selections. 2 Units Love None @ $9.5 with Luxbet/Bet365 (Happy to take $8+ or wait for Best Tote/SP) – 2 Units Squarred @ $8.50 with UBET (Happy to take $7+ or wait for Best Tote/SP)