TAREE EXPECTED PATTERN – Rail stays in the true position. Stong winds still around from the SSW. This should do a couple of things – ensure a very firm and fast racing surface and similar to Randwick yesterday ensure the leaders run swift time up the straight with a solid tail wind. Anticipating an on pace advantaged pattern. There does look good pressure in some of the bigger fields – may be a chance of running on in these. ng eye on the pattern early.
The day just does not line up as hoping. Will give a run down on thoughts in races that do not quite fall into place.
R1 #9 Miss Victa ($4) – #10 Play Now ($6.5) – Lady I Am on debut new stable here – Former Tracy Bartley, now in the hands of Tim Martin – has had the one quiet trial. Market looks to have over reacted a touch and keen to have a play around this filly. Miss Victa is a fast filly resuming for the Perry yard – blinkers and tongue tie on – most recent trial in the blinkers she missed the kick before showing good speed – if she gets away cleanly here she will give a big sight. Play Now also has the blinkers on – not convinced by her – but draws to trail the speed and can be open to improvement. Still scared of the Tim Martin factor – so not betting right up.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2.5 Units Miss Victa @ $6.50 with Bet365/Sportsbet/TAB – 1 Unit Play Now @ $8.50 with Luxbet – $8 with all other outlets.
R2 – Another short priced favourite that looks a very solid risk. Texas Tycoon looks to lack early toe and could find a very awkward position in running here – faces a strong task. Sepae resumes – three solid trials – has a bit of pace and is open to improvement – looks a more deserved favourite but still a fitness query. Quite Frankly is going well for the new stable – led to the post last time out – did have the pattern in his favour – could adopt similar tactics here and will be fitter. Metre Eater is better than his form suggests – 56 days between runs – he can run a race here fresh at big odds. Others in the race do have the ability to improve. Too tough a race – but keen to bet around the favourite.
R3 – Wanted to find Majestic Pedrille here – but they insist on riding this horse negatively and the rider will give you ‘daymares’ – not enough meat in the price and another race that looks a lottery.
R4 – Another race that looks up for grabs. Lozza is a nice enough horse – up to provincial grade and gets the blinkers for the first time but draws with plenty of speed inside him. If he can get across early he is certainly the horse to beat. Cannot suggest a bet on this horse simply due to not knowing where it will be in the run. Lottery again outside of him.
R5 – Hard Merchandise is an improving type with good speed – 1400m looks like it will be suitable and should give a great sight. Very unreliable stable and early price is unfortunately gone. Staying out again.
R6 – Horrendous race. No
R7 – Taree Cup – Admiral Jello has city quality – but comes up $2.50 – will get back and has zero turn of foot. He will keep grinding but it extremely vulnerable. There looks good pressure in the race with many of the on pacers very susceptible at the journey. Mr McBat is a very tough horse to follow and will get back a touch – like the engagement of J Ford and he does have the turn of foot to finish these off over the extended journey. Is certainly a gamble – but around the $9 mark – there are far worse bets around today.
R8 – Too hard for me – will be the charge of the light brigade.