MUSWELLBROOK EXPECTED PATTERN – Rail in the true position. 15mm of irrigation on the track in the last week – but with the high winds, extremely surprised if the track is not very firm and playing in a fast fashion. An advantage to those up on the pace.
THE PLAN – Small fields and little value, mixed with a couple of lotteries. Staying very quiet – one small play in R4.
R1 – Terrible race on paper – there look two horses with upside. Silent Jack obviously very interesting – a touch plain on debut but far from disgraced – 22 days since and out to 1500m – can improve significantly. Latin Light looks the other obvious improver – got home solidly in a decent maiden on debut – open to improvement and looks suited up in trip. No value here
R2 – Our Dilemma looks clear top choice here – price to match – unreliable pilot and stable not exactly flying. Staying out.
R3 – Just no – Yuck
R4 #2 Fiscal Policy – an interesting runner resuming here – has good pace and can still be well and truly on the up – looks suited to this distance range fresh – if Buckley pushes on early – is clearly the horse to run down. Two main dangers Grundalina/General Harmony both draw softly and do represent dangers from that position – clear edge to General Harmony of the two – simply because of the rider. $9 looks well and truly enough value to have a small play on Fiscal.
SUGGESTED BETTING: 2 Units Fiscal Policy @ $9 with Bet365 (Take $8+)
R5 – Small field. Floki a deserved dominant favourite after an emphatic win in MDN grade last start. Oakfield Time and Final Frontier are not pushovers – watch and learn race for mine.
R6 – Ugly race – pressure looks uncertain and nothing looks ideally setup to capitalise. Staying out.
R7 – Impossible – complete lottery.