EXPECTED PATTERN – They only race at Forbes very sparingly but as you will see from the photo below it is quite a tight and turning track. The 1100m start (the race we are playing today) is not too bad – with a decent run to the first turn. Because of the tight turning nature ideally, you want to be up on the speed.
Race 5 Tips & Bet Suggestions
R5 #1 Molasses – This horses win first up had to be seen to be believed. Looked to be having a glorified barrier trial before Cahill put one around his rump and he let go. Ran down some in form horses there in very good time and literally charged through the line. Draws widest here and there is a concern he will get back as they will have been happy with the way he finished off being ridden conservatively early last time. He does have the early pace to go with them if desired. Either way I think this horse simply has too much talent for these and is capable of overcoming pace/bias if he shows up in a similar mood to first up. Slight distance rise to 1100m is a positive. Looking for dangers – Repentant showed great pace first up over the 1140m before tiring late – can be much harder to run down today – if he gets out pace the $5 mark – could entertain saving on him.
SUGGESTED BETTING: This horse is very hard to predict what will happen with from a betting perspective – due to his possible position in running he could be negatively marked by big syndicates. But the merit in his first up win may just outweigh that in their eyes. Going to suggest 3 Units Molasses @ $3.6 with Bet365 (Happy to take $3.40 or better) – 2 Units Molasses @ Best Tote/SP
NOTE: If you can secure $3.50 or better for your entire stake I would be