WARWICK FARM EXPECTED PATTERN
Rail in the true position and apparently a Soft 5 surface. Would imagine that is very aggressive and its closer to a 6-7 rating. Hoping the track plays fair and you can run on. Going by the first it looks to be OK.
No staking plan today due to a lack of confidence in the track pattern. Will provide the standout selections for the day only.
R3 #5 Epsom Hill – Just have to be with this horse at the price today. Huge effort when outside the fast tempo last time – dictated to a tough in the straight and should have finished much closer. Would have loved the track in the heavy range but he still should be right there throughout and tough.
SUGGESTED BETTING – 2.5 Units Each Way Epsom Hill @ $9.50/$2.50 with Luxbet
R4 #3 Arbeitsam – Again the price differential the main reason for going with Arbeitsam here. He looks to dictate the tempo and forgiving the last start failure when a clear pilot error – he will give a huge sight here. Cosmic Engine the clear danger and worth of having a quinella saver with.
SUGGESTED BETTING – 3 Untis Arbeitsam @ $5 with Bet365 – 2 Units Quinella Arbeitsam/Cosmic Engine
R6 #9 Kings Of Leon – #11 Argent D’or – Two horses here that both look to be going extra well and get back to their home circuit. Kings Of Leon is airborne this preparation – huge effort last start at Wyong against a strong bias – should be strongest late. Argent D’or is fitter for the first up effort in an unsuitable race – can be strong here late also.
SUGGESTED BETTING – 4 Units Kings Of Leon @ Best of the Best – 2 Units Argent D’Or @ $15 with Bet365
R7 #4 So Willie – The key to this bloke is the drop back to the mile. Draws to get the soft trail and if he is back anywhere near his form of three starts back he can be getting over the top of these late.
SUGGESTED BETTING – 4.5 Units So Willie @ $5 with Bet365
R3 #4 Songs Of Earth – Have been waiting for this one to surface again. Resumes here over the 1200m which will be short of his best. Importantly has been gelded and confident he is clearly the most promising horse in this race.
SUGGESTED BETTING – 3 Units Songs Of Earth @ $5.50 with Bet365
R7 #2 Molasses – #9 Flight Risk – Interesting race – have been waiting for Zeta’s Rocket to appear after a dominant win last start over a subsequent winner in fast time. However! Has had a hoof issue and the bar plates have been added for this race – betting right around him now. Molasses resumes – showed great promise in his first campaign and can easily measure up to these fresh. Flight Risk is a knockout hope that can improve significantly on recent form at big odds.
SUGGESTED BETTING – 3 Units Molasses @ $9.50 with Bet365 – 1 Unit Flight Risk @ $41 with various